We flipped 7 NM House seats and lead in two more that are absurdly close. MLG, Stephanie, Supreme Court, Constitutional Amendments, all winners. Steve Fischmann all  have won, as well. And Xochitl is 1975 down with 8,000 uncounted Dona Ana votes to be counted starting at 10am. We could completely take NM. Details.

Before we dive into the midterm results and the implications, a reminder. And apologies for any typos, sentences that drift, or repeat themselves. I am running on the memory of fumes and racing to get to Los Alamos. Last night was a roller coaster, but in the end, we have a whole new ballgame in NM and I just can’t believe it. We did it. Hugely. Thanks to all who volunteered. Tonight rest. But for now, off to Los Alamos with a huge grin on my face. Can’t wait for January at the Roundhouse. Time to get some things done, signed and in law.

Life Goes on and So Does Chromium Plume Threatening Our Water.  There is a hearing TODAY from 9-4pm at Los Alamos Magistrate Court, 2500 Trinity Drive, Los Alamos. I called the NM Dept. of the Environment yesterday and spoke with the Hearing Officer, Erin Anderson, who will facilitate the meeting. She said that the hearing would go for at least two days, that today at 9am first would be about one hour of expert testimony followed by public comment. She said she always takes public comment again just before the noon lunch break, then at 1pm after the break and again at 4. The hearing will follow the same schedule on Thursday with the hearing having to end promptly at 5:30 each day. I will be heading over in time for the testimony beginning at 9 and will offer public comment. Hopefully with some others showing up from Retake.  Click here for speaking points and background information. At the very least, please use the link to craft your comment and send an email to the contacts listed. But ideally join me in providing public comment.

So What Happened?  A Tale of Two Very Different Elections

Utterly bizarre experience watching the returns. A tale of two elections. In the national races, a disappointing result in the Senate, a less than overwhelming but sufficient retaking of the US House (with some races still too close to call) and a disappointing show in the Governors’ races, including two heart-breaking losses. Over the first 4-5 hours of return watching, things went back and forth with it appearing we might win big in Texas and Florida. But alas, not to be. While it would have been nice to have taken the Senate, won with Beto and Gillum, having the House we will be able to make life miserable for Donald Trump. That was Election Tale I.

Then New Mexico. Oh my. NM politics has been transformed and the work of hundreds of volunteers and a highly functioning Democratic Party and Coordinated Campaign is responsible.  We have completely changed how business will get done in NM. We are clearly on offense now. I was almost out the door to get to Los Alamos when Mariel Nanasi called with news that Xochitl had not conceded and that almost 8000 votes are being counted starting at 10am. She needs just over 60% of those votes and she wins. That would be a total, complete NM blue tsunami.  But even if we lose that race, the scope of the wins everywhere else is almost impossible to grasp. And given that for a very long time, Retake has contended that change can best happen locally and at the state level: well over the past year, with Tim Keller winning in ABQ,, Alan Webber winning in Santa Fe and the blue tsunami that just hit NM, state and local change is so within our grasp. Time to play offense. Big time.

After my commentary, I have updated all the NM House and US Senate, House and Governor races, but in truth, I think the meaning of last night is best captured in the commentary.  And so…..

3pm. CNN. Watching at home starting at 3pm, hearing mostly about exit polling data.  I heard that

• Those polled found health care as the most important issue by 2-1 (43% for healthcare, 21% for immigration)…For the purposes of the mid-terms this is good news as the Democrats have made healthcare their issue
• Those polled about how much they support the GOP and Democratic parties:  GOP 43% approve, 54% disapprove.  Dem:  50% approve, 46% disapprove
• 78% of those polled felt it was important to elect women and seven of ten felt electing a more people of color. Not good news for the lily white male dominent
• 25% of those polled felt that recent extremist violence is the most important issue facing America and 54% felt it was an important issue…hence 76% think this is very important, something that doesn’t bode well for Trump.
• 48% of those polled found Trump’s immigration policy to be too tough, only 16% felt it needed to be tougher and 32% felt it was about right– a finding I found surprising.

The commentators prattled on about all of the above being a good omen for the Democrats. But I recalled exit poll data projecting a good day for the Dems back in 2016. But, still this first wave of info to process brought good tidings.

4pm CNN.  And then the results started. Indiana Senate race up in flames with the GOP in a huge lead and with the realization that we had zero margin for error with the Senate. A bell weather Kentucky House District flitted back and forth, very close, despite the district voting Trump by 16% in 2016. A good sign in flipping the House. As Florida results started to come in quickly the Dems took a narrow lead in both the Governor’s and Senate races. It was looking pretty good. Georgia brought far more troubling results, as from the start Stacey Abrams was losing badly. But still there were promising House wins springing up in North and South Carolina, Virginia and Florida.

6pm CNN.  Up and down and up and down. And then down.  Roxanne and I headed to Mariel Nanasi and Jeff Haas’ home for a pot luck with tons of great progressives, hoping for a better results. The moment we got in the door we were greeted with news that Beto was winning by 6.5% of the vote with something like 48% of the vote counted. That was the highwater mark. That margin narrowed at the same pace that Florida’s Governor and Senate races first tightened and then slipped away. With news that Indiana and Missouri Senate races were not close and going Red, it was clear the Senate was out of reach, even if Beto won. He did not. And then Gillum issued his concession speech. What a dignified man with so much potential for national leadership, a potential that would have been more quickly nurutured by the national platform of black Governor of a huge southern state. Not to be. And sad. So close.

9pm CNN. No Blue Tsunami. Some Take Aways. This is sort of the end of Part I of the Tale of Two Elections. The reality hit home. Four ever so close races in Florida, Texas and Georgia. In three of those races, inspiring leaders led unabashedly progressive campaigns supported by enthusiastic grassroots campaigns in historically unfriendly southern political climates. And it struck home that the difference between a narrow loss and a narrow win is just one or two percent and yet, the impact is enormous. How different the implications if those three progressives and their messages and their grassroots funded campaigns had won. And yet….

Before the closing of the polls and the first returns, I had expected Gillum to win. Five different polls had him leading by between 4-7% the day before the election. I had read a Vox article about Gillum where he was quoted below.

I believe that we are running as the most unapologetically progressive candidate because I believe that is how we are going to win the state of Florida — by leaning into who we are and not against who we are,” Gillum said on a debate stage. We should never apologize for our progressive values. When we pretend to be center right in general elections, we lose,” he said in a tweet. “I’m sick of losing.”

He is sick of losing and so am I. He came so close. But….as a result, the take away from his campaign just can’t be that centrists need to step back and let progressives lead. But if Gillum and Abrams and Beto had all won, that would certainly be part of today’s conversation. And yet, maybe the take away is not that the progressives can’t win under these conditions, but that we just haven’t won, not yet So for me that is one key take away from Part I of the Tale of Two elections.  The second?

We got a glimpse of how ugly it can get and  2020 will be worse.  At local, state and national levels we got a taste for how ugly things can get. With Trump setting the tone, the nation felt largely unbridled in its vitriol. Candidate choices were not between two public servants with differing positions; it was between good and evil. A candidate wart was magnified into a cancerous growth. And truth had no place in ads or rhetoric. Lastly, while I am not certain about whether the Russians tinkered with the election, the US certainly did and not for the better. Barriers to voting were created at every turn, at least when the district trended blue or brown, with those districts having fewer polling stations, ID checks and police stationed nearby polling stations to prevent voter fraud that doesn’t exist and to create very real fears in some voters.

We have much work to do. When there as many official laws and official and unofficial policies that make it hard for a huge segment of the disenfranchised to vote and you then lose narrowly, it is impossible to not reflect on what would have been if only we operated in a true democracy. But we don’t and we won’t ever get rid of the vestiges of Jim Crow and the absurd claims of voter fraud and the absurd purging of voter registration roles and limiting of polling stations in communities of color, none of that will change until we win and win big, change the power dynamic and change those laws. But how?

I go back to Gillum’s quote and the inspiring campaigns of Abrams, Gillum and Beto. They were not wrong and they came ever so close to winning in states that simply do not historically elect Democrats, let alone progressive ones. To have come this close only means that we haven’t gotten there yet, but we are employing the right strategies. We just need to work harder and more importantly sooner. Far too many, Democrats simply don’t vote. Far too many of those who are most disenfranchised don’t even pay attention.  Getting them to pay attention, to care, to see hope, to have faith and to vote, is the way we get to the mountain top, not by returning to tiresome centrist candidates who will never inspire. That is why I am so happy to have seen that the Democratic Party of Santa Fe is holding a meeting in a week to begin a Voter Registration campaign. Kudos for this.

Part II:  A Tale of Two Elections–NM Did Us Proud

Roxanne and I left Mariel and Jeff’s at the end of Part I. NM returns were just beginning to flow and while the results looked promising, indeed, very promising, the way the Secretary of State reported the results made it impossible to tell what percent of the vote had been counted. And given that that national vote had not exactly been a resounding success, it was hard to be optimistic. So we went home.

But when we got home, I switched to KOB on my laptop and found that all those races where Dems were leading, Dems had won. The sole apparent loss, Xochitl Torres Small should really be viewed as a symbolic victory In a district that had given the House to Pearce by 20+%, Xochitl had lost by 2%.  No shame there. And as reported above, she may still win. But truthfully, in terms of how we can advocate for progressive principles, legislation and policy within NM, our US House Reps have little impact.

But OMG how different it will be lobbying at the Roundhouse and the PRC for the next 2+ years at the very least, and likely far longer. Polls had made it clear MLG was to be governor and she won even more handily than the polls had projected. But Land Commissioner is a hugely important position and most insiders I spoke with had not seen Stephanie winning. But she did. And with between 7 and 9 NM House seats flipped and a Democratic Governor, the Roundhouse was going to be a very different place in 2019. And this means that in 2019, we had better not be placating folks about lowering the predatory lending rate to 36%, or raising the minimum wage significantly, or passing the Health Security Act. So much is suddenly possible.

Then it occurred to me that Retake had worked with the Democratic Coordinated Campaign and identified eleven House races to support. Three of those races (McQueen in HD 50, Chandler in 43, and Romero in 46) were Democratic holds. All held. Eight were Democratic flips, all flipped. Eleven for eleven. And Retake volunteers were active in all those races, especially in Dist. 46, Dist. 20, Abbas Akhil, as well as for Stephanie, Steve Fischmann and Xochitl.

A word about District 20. Neri Holquin whose 100% batting average remains in place, had told me repeatedly, HD 20 will be the closest race in the House. And it was. And Retake volunteers were very active canvassing and calling on his behalf. So often I had encouraged our folks to get engaged, that these state races can be won narrowly, that you can be the difference. In HD 20 and in HD 46, we were a major factor in winning. Thanks to all of you who came out. 

One last thought about NM results. The PRC. Inexplicably the newspapers and the SOS site indicated that but 36% of the vote had been counted in PRC District 5 with Fischmann up 5% and 5500 votes. It looked promising but 36% was a curious total and left open the door for disaster. But I wrote to Steve and he got right back to me. He won. The only precincts where the total was not final, he was winning with 60% of the vote. His margin would only grow. With MLG, Stephanie, Steve, Abbas, and 8 House flips, NM legislative and energy regulation environment has been transformed. It is impossible to overstate how different today:

• We have a Democratic governor who may require pushing, but will sign most anything the Roundhouse serves up;
• We have the same 24-16 split in the Senate and this will be where we need to push hardest as there are quite a number of centrists in that mix who tend to be fiscally conservative (JA Smith) or indebted to gas and oil.
• But we have a House that shifted from 37-33 to at least 44-26 and possibly 46-24. Speaker Egolf must be just beaming. Managing a House with that kind of breathing room should be something. It also raises expectations and hopes that we won’t have to compromise on things like predatory lending, minimum wage, the Health Security Act and in facing up to PNM on securitization, community aggregation and other renewable efforts
• We have control of the PRC and can expect PNM to be very fearful, a fear only compounded because;
• We have Stephanie Garcia Richards as Land Commissioner, $2 million Chevron donation to Lyons be damned.

Taken together, we have an opportunity in NM, an incredible one. It will take quite some time to digest it all, but I’ll be mulling it all the way to Los Alamos for the Chromium plume hearing. But when I got the call from Mariel that Xochitl was still in it, we both burst into tears, choking in our efforts to express ourselves with words. This was Election Night Part II. What a night.

The actual tallies. I don’t know how much bandwidth you have for the details, but I did my best to update all the NM House Races, the US Senate, Governor, and House races that we had identified as swing races. As noted, some of the races are still too close to call, but I dug in to get the likely outcomes and projected them in red or blue depending on the outcome. As noted above, we were totally successful in NM, and if Xochitl pulls it off, holy crap, a total blue tsunami in NM.

Detailed results below. Forge on if you care. But I am getting breakfast and heading to Los Alamos, grinning from ear to ear.

New Mexico Crazy Blue

In 2016, we retook the New Mexico House and now enjoy a 37-33 majority with a 24-16 majority in the Senate. While no Senators are up for re-election during the midterms, 37 of the 70 seats in the House are contested with 22 Democratic seats uncontested and 11 GOP seats uncontested. Hence in 15 races Democratic seats are up for grabs and 22 GOP seats. With 37 (D) vs 33 (GOP) as the pre-election mix, I am guessing Democratic leadership sees flipping 3 seats as their lowest measure of success. I am hoping for the Dems to flip seats in HD 15, 20, 28, 29, 30, 35 and 68 and in my fantasy world also HD 4 and 53.  I’ve used red and blue to highlight how we did. I said I’d be very happy with a 44-26 result at the end of the day, especially if Abbas (HD20) is among the winners. But in truth (written at 2pm yesterday) I’d take 42-28 and a five seat gain. And now at 8:30 am Wednesday….. 44-26 is the worst we could do and we are heading toward 46-24!  Given the other wins across NM, this is a very good thing. Life at the Roundhouse and the PRC will be very different.

Why is a larger margin in the House so important? With the House even more pronouncedly Democratic, then committees will not be 6-5 Dem, but more often 7-4, a much more comfortable margin and one that tolerates a Dem occasionally crossing the aisle.

Incumbents are indicated by an * and red and blue are used to illustrate how we did.

1. HD-1-  GOP, uncontested
2. HD-2-  GOP, uncontested
3. HD-3- Schildmeeyer (D) vs Bandy GOP*
4. HD-4- Allison (D) vs. Clahschilliage (GOP)*… a longshot, but a possible Democratic flip.  UPDATE 11:30pm T:   Allison up by 200 with 94% of vote in 
5. HD-5-  Dem., uncontested
6. HD-6- Dem, uncontested
7. HD-7- Baca (D) vs. Fajardo (GOP)*, unlikely but not impossible if we get a real Xochitl wave
8. HD-8- Jaramillo (D) vs Baldanado (GOP)*
9. HD-9- Dem, uncontested
10. HD-10- Dem, uncontested
11. HD-11- Dem uncontested
12. HD-12- Dem uncontested
13. HD-13- Dem uncontested
14. HD-14- Dem uncontested
15. HD-15- Hochmann (D) vs. Winter (GOP)….possible flip in ABQ as this was held by the GOP in 2016
16. HD-16- Dem, uncontested
17. HD-17- Armstrong (Dem)* vs. Gallegos (GOP) a must protect for the Dems
18. HD 18- Dem uncontested
19. HD 19- Dem uncontested
20. HD 20- Abbas Akhil (D) YAY vs. Jim Dines (GOP)*….a serious possible takeaway opportunity that would put a climate scientist in the Roundhouse. Update 11pm Tuesday)  KOB reported Abbas as winning by 106 votes. Neri Holquin, his campaign manager says the margin is 64. Whatever, that means the canvassers who walked for him made the difference and so we now will have a climate scientist in the Roundhouse.
21. HD 21- Dem uncontested
22. HD 22- Velasquez (Dem) vs. Smedes (GOP)* …I don’t know much about this race but a flip opportunity (*** 90% return 100 vote lead)
23. HD 22- Ely (Dem)* vs. Boatman (GOP), should be safe, but fingers crossed
24. HD 23- Thomson (Dem)* vs. Morris (GOP) another important hold for the Dems.
25. HD 25- Trujillo (D)* vs.Marentes (GOP)
26. HD 26, Dem uncontested
27. HD 27, Pratt (D) vs. God (GOP),
28. HD 28, Stansbury (G) vs. Hall (GOP)* ….another flip opportunity and a chance to elect another woman
29. HD 29, Garratt (D) vs. Adkins (GOP)*… another flip opportunity and a chance to elect another woman
30. HD 30, Figueroa (D) vs. Jones (GOP)….Nate Gentry’s seat so, another flip opportunity and a chance to elect another woman, Natalie lost narrowly against Gentry in 2016. We should get this one.
31. HD 31, Whiley (Lib) vs. Rehm (GOP)*….some lousy options here
32. HD 32, Sweetser (D)* vs. Boyd (GOP)….need to protect here
33. HD 33, Cadena (D) vs. Wendler (GOP).. Bill McCamley’s old seat, so a hold and I can’t believe Bill will let his seat go GOP
34. HD 34, Dem uncontested
35. HD 35, Rubio (D)* vs. Allen (GOP), a hold
36. HD 36, Small (D)* vs. Hofsted (GOP), a really important hold
37. HD 37, Ferrary (D)* vs. Courtney, (GOP), another important hold
38. HD 38, Whitlock (D) vs. Dow (GOP)*, a great flip opportunity
39. HD 39, Martinez (D)* vs. Cotter (GOP) should be safe
40. HD 40, Sanchez (D)* vs. Blanchett (DTS), should be safe
41. HD 41, Herrera (D) uncontested, good bye Rodella
42. HD 42, Dem uncontested
43. HD 43, Chandler (D) vs Shin (GOP) Stephanie Garcia Richards seat, should be safe. Shin is over the top
44. HD 44, Powell (D) vs. Powdrell-Culbert (GOP)*, I don’t know much about this one but a flip possibility
45. HD 45, Dem uncontested
46. HD 46, Romero (D) vs. Nordquist (D, write-in)
47. HD 47, Dem uncontested
48. HD 48, Dem uncontested
49. HD 49, Dem uncontested
50. HD 50, McQueen (D)* vs. Applewhite (DTS).  I am pulling for Matthew here.
51. HD 51, Swanson (D)* vs. Black (GOP) Alamagordo
52. HD 52, Gallegos (D)* vs. Cheek (GOP) Las Cruces, Xochitl wave
53. HD 53, Madrid (D) vs. Little (GOP)* This would be a tremendous flip, Little is so out of step
54. HD 54, GOP uncontested
55. HD 55, GOP uncontested
56. HD 56, GOP uncontested
57. HD 57, Helean (D) vs. Harper (GOP)* a tough one
58. HD 58, GOP uncontested
59. HD 59, Swinney (Lib) vs. Nibert (GOP)* , ugh
60. HD 60, GOP uncontested
61. HD 61, GOP uncontested
62. HD 62, GOP uncontested
63. HD 63, Dodge (D)* vs. Zamora (GOP), one precinct uncounted 30 vote lead
64. HD 64, GOP uncontested
65. HD 65, Dem. uncontested
66. HD 66, GOP uncontested
67. HD 67, McDonald (D) vs. Chatfield (GOP)
68. HD 68, Bash (D) YAY vs Youngblood (GOP)*  So want this to flip….gonna be close
69. HD 69, Dem uncontested
70. HD 70, Dem uncontested

Flipping the House

In our Scorecard we noted that the Dems nationally were very likely to retake the House. Currently the GOP holds a 235-193 advantage with seven vacancies, so a 42 vote advantage. The Democrats needed to take at least 25 seats to get to 218 with every House seat being voted upon in the mid-term, although as with the NM House, there are uncontested seats. Obviously more than 25 flips would be desirable as on any given vote one or more Dems may flip and vote with the GOP.

Over the last four days, there has been significant movement in the polls and almost all of it has favored the Dems. Asterisk designates an incumbent and there are a whole lotta of asterisks after GOP candidates who are losing. Prediction:  Of the 39 in play, the Dems take 25 and hold a 227-208 advantage come January, a comfortable margin.

Results:  We took 22 with one still tied, so while we didn’t do as well as hoped, it was remarkable how close many of these races were and we did retake the House.

How’d We DO?  The red and blue tell the tale.  

1. AK-At Large:  Galvin (D) vs Young (GOP)*  Dem + 1
2. AZ-1:  O’Halleran (D)* vs Rogers (R).  No polling 2
3. CA-10:  Harder (D) vs. Denham (GOP)*  Dem + 5
4. CA-25:  Hill (D) vs Knight (GOP)*  GOP + 4 (most recent, but D + 4 four weeks ago, fingers crossed)
5. CA-39:  Cisneros (D) vs. Kim (GOP)  Dem + 1
6. CA-45:  Porter (D) vs. Walters (GOP)* Dem + 7 and +2
7. CA-48:  Rouda (D) vs. Rorhabacher (GOP)*  Dem + 7
8. Fl-15:  Carlson (D) vs. Spano (GOP) Dead Heat
9. Fl-26:  Mucarsel-Powell (D) vs. Curbelo (GOP)*  Dem + 1 (was behind two weeks ago)
10. Fl-27:  Shalala (D) vs. Salazar (GOP)  Dem + 7.  This was held by the GOP
11. GA-6:  McBath (D) vs. Handell (GOP)* D+2— 
12. IA-3:  Axne (D) vs. Young (GOP)  Dem + 2
13. Il-6:   Casten (D) vs. Roskam (GOP)*  Dem + 2
14. Il-14:  Underwood (D) vs. Hultgren (GOP)* Dem + 6
15. KS-2:  Davis (D) vs. Watkins (GOP) Dem + 4
16. KY-6: McGrath (D) vs. Barr (GOP)* GOP +Tie. Trump took this district by 16%
17. ME-2 (inland Maine) Jared Golden, vs. Polquin (GOP)*, Dem + 1 (Golden is a solid progressive… a sweet win) [W-5:30AM: oddly only 39% of precincts counted with Dem. Golden ahead 2% or 2250 votes. Likely to go blue.
18. MI-8:  Slotkin (D) vs. Bishop (GOP)* Dem + 7
19. MI-11: Stevens (D) vs. Epstein (GOP) Dem + 3.5
20. MN-1: Freehan (D) vs. Hagedorn (GOP)  Dem + 2—-Wed. 5:30 this is 50-50% but with GOP up 1100
21. MN-7: Peterson (D)* vs. Hughes (GOP) No polling data oddly, but Peterson is an incumbent
22. MT At Large: Williams (Dem) vs Gianforte (GOP)*  GOP + 3.7.  Gianforte is the guy who body slammed a reporter
23. NC-9:  Macready (D) vs. Harris (GOP)  GOP + 1, but Macready was up by 4 in an earlier poll.  Wed 5:30, GOP up 1900 votes w/97% of vote counted
24. NH-1:  Pappas (D) vs. Edwards (GOP) Dem + 11
25. NJ-3:  Kim (D) vs. MacArthur (GOP)*  GOP + 1/3 of 1 percent….yikes. This is the GOP Rep. featured in Friday’s video. He was the key vote in gutting Obamacare. I’d love to see this guy go down.  97% of vote counted too close to call, but GOP up 1% or 1900 votes
26. NM-2:  XOTCHI!!!! vs Herrell (GOP)…GOP + 1.Fingers crossed.
27. NV-3:  Lee (D) vs. Tarkanian (GOP)  Dem + 10
28. NV-4:  Horsford (D) vs. Hardy (GOP)  Dem + 4
29. NY-19:  Delgado (D) vs. Faso (GOP)* Dem + 1
30. NY-22:  Brindisi (D) vs. Tenney (GOP)*  GOP + 1
31. PA-1:  Wallace (D) vs. Fitzpatrick (GOP)* GOP + 2
32. PA-10: Scott (D) vs. Perry (GOP)*  GOP + 2.5
33. PA-16: DiNicola (D) vs. Kelly (GOP)*  Dem + 4
34. TX-7:  Fletcher (D)  vs. Culberson (GOP) * GOP +1
35. TX-32:  Allred (D) vs. Sessions (GOP)* D+ 4 (This would be a nice one to get. Allred is great.)
36. UT-4: McAdams (D) vs. Love (GOP)*  Dem + 2.3
37. VA-5:  Cockburn (D) vs. Riggelman (GOP)  Dem + 1
38. VA-7:  Spanberger (D) vs. Brat (GOP)*  GOP + 2
39. WA-8:  Schrier (D) vs. Rossi (GOP)  Dem + 3

The following races are not identified as in play but I find them of interest just because they are pretty close and/or pretty important. Obviously wins in any of these GOP held districts would improve the math above.

• CA 50: Ammar Campa Najjar) vs   GOP+3
• IA-4 (Northwest Iowa) :JD Scholten, vs King (disgusting GOP) -1
• ND:  McCready (D) vs Harris (GOP). ….GOP + 1
• WI-1 (Paul Ryan’s old seat) Randy Bryce (Wisc) D vs. Stiehl (GOP) GOP + 5:  Wed. 6am:  GOP won by over 10% ugh.

Flipping The Senate

Cute Kitty Prays for Beto

Swing States:  There seven swing states listed in the middle and to get to 50, we need to win all of these to get to 50, uncomfortable for the GOP and an improvement, but to get to 51 we also need to win one of the leaning GOP states below. A week ago, this looked impossible, but Democrats have been surging in Senate races. The path to 51 was very narrow, but as you saw in our preview, races were vey close and with a good turnout anything is possible. My prediction was that we came up two short and rested at 51-49 GOP.  So how did we do?

Quite obviously we did not do well. And as bad as it feels knowing we lost 5 of these 7 is the fact that in the five the GOP carried, Trump visited and campaigned intensely. His narrative will certainly be: where I went, we won. And that would not be untrue and is something we need to wrestle with. 

• Arizona:  Sinema (D) Vs McSally (GOP), Dem + 1 and GOP + 1–75% of vote counted and GOP up 6000 votes….1%. so this is not out of reach.
• Florida:  Nelson (D)* v Scott (GOP) Dem + 4, 5 and 7 in Monday polls.  Weds am: Dead heat with GOP up 34,000 votes and 99% counted it doesn’t look good.
• Indiana:  Donnelly (D)* vs Braun (GOP) Dem + 7 and one poll showing tie on Monday
• Missouri:  McCaskill (D)* vs Hawley (GOP)….Even, Monday one poll Dem+ 1 and two with GOP+ 3
• Montana:  Tester (D)* vs Rosendale (GOP) Dem +4.5  WEDS.  with 95% counted, GOP up 2000 or 1%. Not good.
• Nevada:  Rosen vs. Heller Dem + 1 and +4
• West Virginia:  Manchin (D)* vs. Morrisey (GOP) Dem+5

Leaning GOP.  We needed one of these if we win all of the above. Our best shots were in Texas, followed by Tennessee and North Carolina. But the GOP is leading in all the polls. EXCEPT FOR BETO!!!  How did we do?

• North Dakota:  Keitkamp (D)* vs. Cramer (GOP) Cramer + 9
• Tennessee.  Bredesen (D) vs. Blackburn (GOP), Blackburn + 8
• Texas:  Beto O’Rourke (D) vs Ted Cruz (GOP) TIED in most recent poll

Leaning Dem.  We need to hold all five of these states and appear to be doing just that. Note MN has two races due to a special election to replace Sen. Franken. We seem comfortably ahead in all of these races.

• Michigan:  Stabenow (D)* vs. James (GOP)– Dem + 13
• Minnesota (2) Smith (D)* vs. Housley (GOP)  Dem + 6
• New Jersey: Menendez (D)* vs. Hugin (GOP)– Dem + 15
• Ohio:  Brown (D)* vs Renacci (GOP)   Dem + 9
• Wisconsin:  Baldwin (D)* vs. Jukmir (GOP)– Dem + 9

Flipping State Governors

To assume control of 50% of the Democrats must take 8 of the 12 seats that are contested. The polls were close, but it seemed possible that we would get at least close to 25 governors. Prediction:  We get the eight we need, unfortunately, unless we are very lucky I don’t think Stacey Abrams will be among those winning. I just don’t trust the Georgia voting system with Kemp in charge. So how did we do?  Not very well winning 5 losing 7 and no solace to be found in Idaho.  

• Alaska:  Begich (D) vs. Dunleavy (GOP) GOP +1
• Connecticut:  Lamont (D) vs. Stefanoski (GOP)… Dem +7
• Florida: Gillum (D) vs DeSantis (GOP) Dem+ 5, + 5 + 7 (looking good)
• Georgia: Abrams (D) vs. Kemp (GOP) GOP + 2 (a switch from Fri. plus a bizarre poll from Trafalgar Group (R) that has Kemp up 12. I wonder what the R stands for????
• Iowa:  Hubbell (D) vs. Reynolds (GOP)* Dem + 2
• Kansas:  Kelly (D) vs. Koblach (GOP) GOP +1
• Nevada. Sisolak (D) vs Laxalt (GOP), Dem + 1
• New Hampshire:  Kelly (D) vs. Sununu (GOP) Tie… this was + * GOP a week ago
• Ohio: Cordray (D) vs DeWine (GOP) Dem + 5
• Oregon:  Lamont (D) vs. Stefanowski (GOP), Dem + 9
• South Dakota: Noem vs Sutton GOP + 1
• Wisconsin:  Evers (D) vs. Scott Walker (the GOP devil). Dead heat, last Tuesday, Tie on Monday, Dem + 5 Friday

I have added one other Governor’s race I’ll be watching, just because the Democrat is so damned cool.

• Idaho: Paulette Jordan (Dem).  She is a great candidate, 6’ Native American woman, very progressive, but even in conservative Idaho her message is resonating with voters and in recent polling has closed the gap to 2-3%. I am not sure why this race is listed safely GOP.  If Jordan were to wins pop the champagne.

That’s it. Fingers crossed.

In solidarity,

Paul & Roxanne

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