Here’s a Guide to help you understand the implications of the NM House, US House, US Senate, and US Governor races. All swing races with most recent polling data for each race.
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Mid-Term Election Results Viewer’s Guide & Scorecard
Tuesday night, you’ll have done all you can. Now it is time to pop some popcorn or order a pizza, open a beverage, put some bubbly on ice for when you have something to celebrate and watch the returns. Exit poll data will begin to be reported at 1pm MT. The first returns will begin around 5pm MT with east coast returns. Texas polls close at 6pm. Indiana and Kentucky close early, so returns from there should start coming in at 4pm MT. NM polls close at 7pm, so the Secretary of State website should start reporting early voting almost immediately. Click here to get those results. Since I got that link before results began to be reported, the page is now blank. Hopefully it is where results will be posted tonight. If not, poke around the SOS site. Results are updated throughout the night and are the best source for NM results. Keep in mind, early voting has gone through the roof and in most instances those results will be posted immediately.
The Guide first covers all the contested NM House races, followed by the US House, US Senate and the US Governors races. I assume that all of you are fully on top of the NM Governor, US Dist 2, Land Commission and the two PRC races, but a few words about these races. It looks like the races involving both Xochitl (HD-2) and Garcia Richards (Land Commissioner) will be very, very close. And there is no polling available for either of the PRC races. I have long said that PRC Dist. 5 is one of the most important races in the state, so I’ll have my eyes on that one. If Steve Fischmann wins, he’ll be able to hear me yelling all the way in Las Cruces. Ditto Xochitl and Stephanie. Most recent polling on Sunday showed Michelle back up 10% after an odd KOB poll on Saturday reported a 5% gap. Most recent polls have Xochitl trailing by 1%. Fingers crossed.
As to the US races, much of the polling data summarized below has been derived from the most recent polls reported on Real Clear Politics website. I compiled all of the data on Thursday and have updated it again each day. I completed an update Monday afternoon, noting that quite a few Dems were either closing in or growing their leads. I also examined Real Clear Politics early this morning. The rationale behind developing the Guide is that we have a national and state election with much at stake and much in flux. When the returns come in, TV commentators will bounce from state to state and make comments about trends, but it is hard to keep all the numbers and trends in context. For my part, I like the CNN “Situation Room” as they do a good job of breaking down returns from districts and where the votes are coming in, where votes are still to be counted and how those votes are likely to break by looking at the returns in prior races for each precinct or district. Very nerdy, but the guy is good at it.
You can keep a handle on the overall context by keeping score yourself with the summary below. There are projections for the US House, Senate and Governor’s seats, as well as a list of New Mexico State House Races. For the House, Senate and Governor’s seats I have projected the number of safe or uncontested seats for each party and those that are the swing districts. For the swing districts, I include the most recent polling available. As you watch, if you see Democrats who were projected to win by 1 or 2% winning by 5 or 6% that is obviously good. If some Dem seats thought to be safe become in play, then that is not good. So much at stake, but as of 5pm Tuesday, not much more to do than watch and sweat. Fingers crossed.
Just came across this handy guide from the NY Times. It has an hour by hour guide to what to watch based upon what results will be coming in and where some key races will be decided.. Results begin coming in for Kentucky and Indiana at 4pm MT.and there is a key House race in KY -7. And in Indiana, Joe Donnelly (D) is trying to keep his Senate seat and that is a VERY tight race. As the analysis below describes, there is no room for error to retake the Senate, so this race is crucial. Click here to get the NY Times schedule.
New Mexico House
In 2016, we retook the New Mexico House and now enjoy a 37-33 majority with a 24-16 majority in the Senate. While no Senators are up for re-election during the midterms, 37 of the 70 seats in the House are contested with 22 Democratic seats uncontested and 11 GOP seats uncontested. Hence in 15 races Democratic seats are up for grabs and 22 GOP seats. With 37 (D) vs 33 (GOP) as the pre-election mix, I am guessing Democratic leaderships sees flipping 3 seats as their lowest measure of success. I am hoping for the Dems to flip seats in HD 15, 20, 28, 29, 30, 35 and 68 and in my fantasy world also HD 4 and 53. Many of those I think could flip are in and around ABQ where folks have been canvassing like fools. I’d be very happy with a 44-26 result at the end of the day, especially if Abbas (HD20) is among the winners.
Why is a larger margin in the House so important? With the House even more pronouncedly Democratic, then committees will not be 6-5 Dem, but more often 7-4, a much more comfortable margin and one that tolerates a Dem occasionally crossing the aisle. Stay tuned.
Incumbents are indicated by an *
- HD-1- GOP, uncontested
- HD-2- GOP, uncontested
- HD-3- Schildmeeyer (D) vs Bandy GOP*
- HD-4- Allison (D) vs. Clahschilliage (GOP)*… a longshot, but a possible Democratic flip.
- HD-5- Dem., uncontested
- HD-6- Dem, uncontested
- HD-7- Baca (D) vs. Fajardo (GOP)*, unlikely but not impossible if we get a real Xochitl wave
- HD-8- Jaramillo (D) vs Baldanado (GOP)*
- HD-9- Dem, uncontested
- HD-10- Dem, uncontested
- HD-11- Dem uncontested
- HD-12- Dem uncontested
- HD-13- Dem uncontested
- HD-14- Dem uncontested
- HD-15- Hochmann (D) vs. Winter (GOP)….possible flip in ABQ as this was held by the GOP in 2016
- HD-16- Dem, uncontested
- HD-17- Armstrong (Dem)* vs. Gallegos (GOP) a must protect for the Dems
- HD 18- Dem uncontested
- HD 19- Dem uncontested
- HD 20- Abbas Akhil (D) YAY vs. Jim Dines (GOP)*….a serious possible takeaway opportunity that would put a climate scientist in the Roundhouse
- HD 21- Dem uncontested
- HD 22- Velasquez (Dem) vs. Smedes (GOP)* …I don’t know much about this race but a flip opportunity
- HD 22- Ely (Dem)* vs. Boatman (GOP), should be safe, but fingers crossed
- HD 23- Thomson (Dem)* vs. Morris (GOP) another important hold for the Dems.
- HD 25- Trujillo (D)* vs.Marentes (GOP)
- HD 26, Dem uncontested
- HD 27, Godshall (D) vs Laranaga (GOP),
- HD 28, Stansbury (G) vs. Hall (GOP)* ….another flip opportunity and a chance to elect another woman
- HD 29, Garratt (D) vs. Adkins (GOP)*… another flip opportunity and a chance to elect another woman
- HD 30, Figueroa (D) vs. Jones (GOP)….Nate Gentry’s seat so, another flip opportunity and a chance to elect another woman, Natalie lost narrowly against Gentry in 2016. We should get this one.
- HD 31, Whiley (Lib) vs. Rehm (GOP)*….some lousy options here
- HD 32, Sweetser (D)* vs. Boyd (GOP)….need to protect here
- HD 33, Cadena (D) vs. Wendler (GOP).. Bill McCamley’s old seat, so a hold and I can’t believe Bill will let his seat go GOP
- HD 34, Dem uncontested
- HD 35, Rubio (D)* vs. Allen (GOP), a hold
- HD 36, Small (D)* vs. Hofsted (GOP), a really important hold
- HD 37, Ferrary (D)* vs. Courtney, (GOP), another important hold
- HD 38, Whitlock (D) vs. Dow (GOP)*, a great flip opportunity
- HD 39, Martinez (D)* vs. Cotter (GOP) should be safe
- HD 40, Sanchez (D)* vs. Blanchett (DTS), should be safe
- HD 41, Herrera (D) uncontested, good bye Rodella
- HD 42, Dem uncontested
- HD 43, Chandler (D) vs Shin (GOP) Stephanie Garcia Richards seat, should be safe. Shin is over the top
- HD 44, Powell (D) vs. Powdrell-Culbert (GOP)*, I don’t know much about this one but a flip possibility
- HD 45, Dem uncontested
- HD 46, Romero (D) vs. Nordquist (D, write-in)
- HD 47, Dem uncontested
- HD 48, Dem uncontested
- HD 49, Dem uncontested
- HD 50, McQueen (D)* vs. Applewhite (DTS). I am pulling for Matthew here.
- HD 51, Swanson (D)* vs. Black (GOP) Alamagordo
- HD 52, Gallegos (D)* vs. Cheek (GOP) Las Cruces, Xochitl wave
- HD 53, Madrid (D) vs. Little (GOP)* This would be a tremendous flip, Little is so out of step
- HD 54, GOP uncontested
- HD 55, GOP uncontested
- HD 56, GOP uncontested
- HD 57, Helean (D) vs. Harper (GOP)* a tough one
- HD 58, GOP uncontested
- HD 59, Swinney (Lib) vs. Nibert (GOP)* , ugh
- HD 60, GOP uncontested
- HD 61, GOP uncontested
- HD 62, GOP uncontested
- HD 63, Dodge (D)* vs. Zamora (GOP)
- HD 64, GOP uncontested
- HD 65, Dem. uncontested
- HD 66, GOP uncontested
- HD 67, McDonald (D) vs. Chatfield (GOP)
- HD 68, Bash (D) YAY vs Youngblood (GOP)* So want this to flip….gonna be close
- HD 69, Dem uncontested
- HD 70, Dem uncontested
Flipping the House
Let’s start with the House, where the Dems nationally are very likely to retake the House. Currently the GOP holds a 235-193 advantage with seven vacancies, so a 42 vote advantage. The Democrats need take at least 25 seats to get to 218 and every House seat is being voted upon in the mid-term. Obviously more flips would be desirable as on any given vote one or more Dems may flip and vote with the GOP.
The chart below illustrates that as of this morning 202 races are safely Democratic and 194 safely GOP. Of course, nothing is safe until the ballots are counted. The middle of the chart shows that 39 seats are in play. Of the 39 in the middle, the Dems need to win 16 to take the House by one vote. But that will not feel like much of a blue wave. More like a blue puddle. Without doing any deep analysis, I am thinking winning 25 of the 39 swing districts would be a respectable showing. Immediately below the map, you will find all 39 of the swing district races listed by state and with the most recent poll numbers.
Flipping the House: We can do this. We should do this. We must do this. Remember 16 wins from the 39 below result in the Dems flipping the House, but 20 would be much more wavelike and 25, that is the real goal. With current polling, if the Democrats hold all those districts in which polls show them in the lead, they would win 24 seats with GOP leading in 11. But of the 24 districts where the Democrats are leading, in six districts they lead by only 1%. For the GOP and for the GOP of the 11 in which they lead, fourare by 1% and 1 by 1/3%. Four seats have no polling or are tied. So there is a good deal in play.
Over the last four days, there has been significant movement in the polls and almost all of it has favored the Dems. Asterisk designates an incumbent and there are a whole lotta of asterisks after GOP candidates who are losing. Prediction: Of the 39 in play, the Dems take 25 and hold a 227-208 advantage come January, a comfortable margin.
- AK-At Large: Galvin (D) vs Young (GOP)* Dem + 1
- AZ-1: O’Halleran (D)* vs Rogers (R). No polling
- CA-10: Harder (D) vs. Denham (GOP)* Dem + 5
- CA-25: Hill (D) vs Knight (GOP)* GOP + 4 (most recent, but D + 4 four weeks ago, fingers crossed)
- CA-39: Cisneros (D) vs. Kim (GOP) Dem + 1
- CA-45: Porter (D) vs. Walters (GOP)* Dem + 7 and +2
- CA-48: Rouda (D) vs. Rorhabacher (GOP)* Dem + 7
- Fl-15: Carlson (D) vs. Spano (GOP) Dead Heat
- Fl-26: Mucarsel-Powell (D) vs. Curbelo (GOP)* Dem + 1 (was behind two weeks ago)
- Fl-27: Shalala (D) vs. Salazar (GOP) Dem + 7
- GA-6: McBath (D) vs. Handell (GOP)* D+2
- IA-3: Axne (D) vs. Young (GOP) Dem + 2
- Il-6: Casten (D) vs. Roskam (GOP)* Dem + 2
- Il-14: Underwood (D) vs. Hultgren (GOP)* Dem + 6
- KS-2: Davis (D) vs. Watkins (GOP) Dem + 4
- KY-6: McGrath (D) vs. Barr (GOP)* GOP +Tie
- ME-2 (inland Maine) Jared Golden, vs. Polquin (GOP)*, Dem + 1 (Golden is a solid progressive… a sweet win)
- MI-8: Slotkin (D) vs. Bishop (GOP)* Dem + 7
- MI-11: Stevens (D) vs. Epstein (GOP) Dem + 3.5
- MN-1: Freehan (D) vs. Hagedorn (GOP) Dem + 2
- MN-7: Peterson (D)* vs. Hughes (GOP) No polling data oddly, but Peterson is an incumbent
- MT At Large: Williams (Dem) vs Gianforte (GOP)* GOP + 3.7. Gianforte is the guy who body slammed a reporter
- NC-9: Macready (D) vs. Harris (GOP) GOP + 1, but Macready was up by 4 in an earlier poll
- NH-1: Pappas (D) vs. Edwards (GOP) Dem + 11
- NJ-3: Kim (D) vs. MacArthur (GOP)* GOP + 1/3 of 1 percent….yikes. This is the GOP Rep. featured in Friday’s video. He was the key vote in gutting Obamacare. I’d love to see this guy go down.
- NM-2: XOTCHI!!!! vs Herrell (GOP)…GOP + 1.Fingers crossed.
- NV-3: Lee (D) vs. Tarkanian (GOP) Dem + 10
- NV-4: Horsford (D) vs. Hardy (GOP) Dem + 4
- NY-19: Delgado (D) vs. Faso (GOP)* Dem + 1
- NY-22: Brindisi (D) vs. Tenney (GOP)* GOP + 1
- PA-1: Wallace (D) vs. Fitzpatrick (GOP)* GOP + 2
- PA-10: Scott (D) vs. Perry (GOP)* GOP + 2.5
- PA-16: DiNicola (D) vs. Kelly (GOP)* Dem + 4
- TX-7: Fletcher (D) vs. Culberson (GOP) * GOP +1
- TX-32: Allred (D) vs. Sessions (GOP)* D+ 4 (This would be a nice one to get. Allred is great.)
- UT-4: McAdams (D) vs. Love (GOP)* Dem + 2.3
- VA-5: Cockburn (D) vs. Riggelman (GOP) Dem + 1
- VA-7: Spanberger (D) vs. Brat (GOP)* GOP + 2
- WA-8: Schrier (D) vs. Rossi (GOP) Dem + 3
The following races are not identified as in play but I find them of interest for reasons explained below. Obviously wins in any of these GOP held districts would improve the math above.
- AR-2 (Little Rock): Paul Spencer
- CA 50: Ammar Campa Najjar) vs GOP+3
- CA- 8: Marge Doyle, CA-8 (Mojave Desert)
- IA-4 (Northwest Iowa:JD Scholten, vs King (disgusting GOP) -1
- ND: McCready (D) vs Harris (GOP). ….GOP + 1
- PA 7: (Allentown): Greg Edwards,
- PA 10: (Harrisburg): Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson
- PA-11 (Lancaster Jess King
- Texas 32: Allred (D) vs. Sessions (GOP) GOP + 1
- WI-1 (Paul Ryan’s old seat) Randy Bryce (Wisc) D vs. Stiehl (GOP) GOP + 5
Flipping The Senate
A week ago, this looked impossible, but Democrats have been surging in Senate races. The path to 51 is still very narrow, but as you will see in the polling numbers below the map, things have certainly gotten interesting. Getting to 51 would be tremendous, beyond tremendous, but getting to 49 or 50 would pretty remarkable, all things considered. Remember, a year ago, the GOP was hoping to move from 52 to 60 and have a filibuster-free Senate. No Mas.
Swing States: There seven swing states listed in the middle and to get to 50, we need to win all of these to get to 50, uncomfortable for the GOP and an improvement, but to get to 51 we also need to win one of the leaning GOP states below. On Friday that seems pretty unlikely as two GOP Senators had cozy leads, but as you can see below, the Democrats have surged and lead in all of the races, except for Missouri which is essentially a dead heat with two polls showing opposite results. All of these races have been flipping all over the place in the last week. As close as these seven are, it is not inconceivable the Demos could get them all meaning that they would be to 50. Then it would all come down to Beto. He wins and the Dems take the Senate. A whole lotta things need to go right. Prediction: I am guessing we come up short by 2, not really bad considering how many Dems had to defend their turf and how many GOP didn’t. 2020 will be much different, with far more Republicans having to defend their seats. If we take the Senate and the House, Trump will have a hissy fit and it will be very interesting who he blames and how far fetched he goes. One certainly, he will not blame himself. If the Dems get to 49 it will continue to apply pressure on GOP “moderates” such as they are. Taking the House would help the Dems pressure Trump with investigations they run instead of the GOP and can stall any terrible legislation, but the House can’t stall a Supreme Court nomination, so we need to pray for a healthy Supreme Court until we take the Senate.
- Arizona: Sinema (D) Vs McSally (GOP), Dem + 1 and GOP + 1
- Florida: Nelson (D)* v Scott (GOP) Dem + 4, 5 and 7 in Monday polls
- Indiana: Donnelly (D)* vs Braun (GOP) Dem + 7 and one poll showing GOP+1 on Monday
- Missouri: McCaskill (D)* vs Hawley (GOP)….Even, Monday one poll Dem+ 1 and two with GOP+ 3
- Montana: Tester (D)* vs Rosendale (GOP) Dem +4.5
- Nevada: Rosen vs. Heller Dem + 1 and +4
- West Virginia: Manchin (D)* vs. Morrisey (GOP) Dem+5
Leaning GOP. We need one of these if we win all of the above. Our best shots are in Texas, followed by Tennessee and North Carolina. But the GOP is leading in all the polls. EXCEPT FOR BETO!!!
- North Dakota: Keitkamp (D)* vs. Cramer (GOP) Cramer + 9
- Tennessee. Bredesen (D) vs. Blackburn (GOP), Blackburn + 8
- Texas: Beto O’Rourke (D) vs Ted Cruz (GOP) TIED in most recent poll
Leaning Dem. We need to hold all five of these states and appear to be doing just that. Note MN has two races due to a special election to replace Sen. Franken. We seem comfortably ahead in all of these races.
- Michigan: Stabenow (D)* vs. James (GOP)– Dem + 13
- Minnesota (2) Smith (D)* vs. Housley (GOP) Dem + 6
- New Jersey: Menendez (D)* vs. Hugin (GOP)– Dem + 15
- Ohio: Brown (D)* vs Renacci (GOP) Dem + 9
- Wisconsin: Baldwin (D)* vs. Jukmir (GOP)– Dem + 9
The Senate is clear. If we lose any of the seven swing states the best we can do, even with Beto, is to get to 50.
To assume control of 50% of the Democrats must take 8 of the 12 seats that are contested. We are leading in six races with two races tied. On the other hand the GOP is leading four with no lead more than 2%. Wisconsin is a race that is tied and that we REALLY want to win. And then I have a wild card pick at the bottom. Prediction: We get the eight we need, unfortunately, unless we are very lucky I don’t think Stacey Abrams will be among those winning. I just don’t trust the Georgia voting system with Kemp in charge.
- Alaska: Begich (D) vs. Dunleavy (GOP) GOP +1
- Connecticut: Lamont (D) vs. Stefanoski (GOP)… Dem +7
- Florida: Gillum (D) vs DeSantis (GOP) Dem+ 5, + 5 + 7 (looking good)
- Georgia: Abrams (D) vs. Kemp (GOP) GOP + 2 (a switch from Fri. plus a bizarre poll from Trafalgar Group (R) that has Kemp up 12. I wonder what the R stands for????
- Iowa: Hubbell (D) vs. Reynolds (GOP)* Dem + 2
- Kansas: Kelly (D) vs. Koblach (GOP) GOP +1
- Nevada. Sisolak (D) vs Laxalt (GOP), Dem + 1
- New Hampshire: Kelly (D) vs. Sununu (GOP) Tie… this was + * GOP a week ago
- Ohio: Cordray (D) vs DeWine (GOP) Dem + 5
- Oregon: Lamont (D) vs. Stefanowski (GOP), Dem + 9
- South Dakota: Noem vs Sutton GOP + 1
- Wisconsin: Evers (D) vs. Scott Walker (the GOP devil). Dead heat, last Tuesday, Tie on Monday, Dem + 5 Friday
I have added one other Governor’s race I’ll be watching, just because the Democrat is so damned cool.
- Idaho: Paulette Jordan (Dem). She is a great candidate, 6’ Native American woman, very progressive, but even in conservative Idaho her message is resonating with voters and in recent polling has closed the gap to 2-3%. I am not sure why this race is listed safely GOP. If Jordan were to wins pop the champagne.
That’s it. Fingers crossed.
Paul & Roxanne