According to an ABQ Journal poll, Lujan Grisham is leading Ronchetti 47-40%, so barring some explosive revelation, MLG seems safe, as the SCOTUS decision and Ronchetti’s uncompromising position on abortion have caused enough GOP women to rethink their support for him. We draw on two recent blogs from Joe Monahan, who thinks this could be the beginning of a slide to landslide territory. We also look at fivethirtyeight.com to examine their update showing a Dem surge nationally and a better than 2/3 shot at Dems increasing their hold on the Senate. Finally, details on a meet & greet with Augustine Montoya, a tremendous candidate for NM House Dist. 22. We said the news was good.
First, The Governor’s Race
On Monday, Aug. 29, Joe Monahan wrote: “The ABQ Journal poll, showing plummeting support for Mark Ronchetti, could be enough to frighten potential donors away from the former TV weatherman with over two months to go before election day and a lot of expensive ground to cover.” Monahan quotes veteran analyst Greg Payne:
‘The impact on Ronchetti’s fund-raising is potentially devastating just when he needs it the most. He will now step up his attacks against MLG but she will have all the resources she needs and then some to counter them. It turns out he needed to come with stronger attacks against her and earlier.‘”
On Wednesday, Aug. 31, Monahan shared more polling, this time from ABQ Journal data focusing on the races for Secretary of State, Attorney General, Land Commissioner, and Treasurer, and here the news is even better: Raúl Torrez holds a solid 16% lead, 49%-33%, in his race for AG, and Maggie Toulouse Oliver (Secretary of State), Laura Montoya (Treasurer), and Stephanie Garcia Richard (Land Commissioner) are all holding solid leads, with Joe Maestas (Auditor) in an easy race against a Libertarian write-in candidate. Polling results below:
With MLG and other candidates for statewide offices apparently safe, we can shift our focus to key NM House and Senate races and the Congressional race that is in play. Retake has endorsed and interviewed two candidates very worthy of your support: Augie Montoya (NM State House Dist. 22) and Gabe Vasquez (CD2), both of whom are challenging MAGA-style GOP incumbents in very tough districts. Find video of our interviews with Augie and Gabe at the end of this post. And you can meet Augie Montoya in person next week in Santa Fe!
Meet & Greet for Augie Montoya, Thurs. Sept 8, 5:30 pm
Meet Augie on Sept 8 (Bernie Sanders’ birthday!) at 5:30pm at the home of our friends, Mariel Nanasi and Jeff Haas. While no minimum donation has been set, we are hoping many Retake folks will step up generously.
We have a NM state House in need of more progressive votes to protect against a coalition of moderate/conservative Dems siding with the GOP to elect Patty Lundstrom Speaker of the House. Shudder. Electing Augie to the House would eliminate one GOP vote for Lundstrom and put another vote in Javier Martinez’s column. Go Augie!
Fundraiser for Augustine Montoya at the Santa Fe home of Mariel Nanasi and Jeffrey Haas, Thursday, September 8, 2022, 5:30pm.
Please join co-hosts NM State Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard and esteemed legislators Senator Antoinette Sedillo Lopez, Senator Liz Stefanics, Representative Matthew McQueen, Representative (candidate) Reena Szczepanski, and Representative Andrea Romero.
Paul Gibson & Roxanne Barber; Beth Beloff & Marc Geller; Marla Painter & Mark Rudd; Miguel Acosta; Marti Burt; Ron & Cheryl Flax Davidson; Leslie Lakind; Peter Smith (more hosts being added).
Augustine Montoya is running for New Mexico House District 22 and would be honored to earn your support in this race. Augustine is a young, enthusiastic, bright light with place-based and progressive values who is running against the NRA- and MAGA-aligned Stefani Lord (R), and as a result of redistricting, he has a real shot at winning if he can raise the funds to mount a sustained campaign.
What does Augustine stand for? In his own words:
“Public service and advocacy for my fellow citizens, not special interests, ensures that public policy, tax dollars, and community services benefit the majority of people.” Augustine’s priorities go beyond campaign rhetoric. He:
- Opposes hydrogen production;
- Supports community solar;
- Strongly supports a woman’s right to choose;
- Supports the Green Amendment;
- Strongly opposes private prisons and would like the state to take over existing private prisons in NM.
These kinds of candidates do not appear often. When they do, we need to support them with all the resources we can muster. The Democratic Party is focusing its funding to protect incumbents in close races, so Augie must generate private donations to sustain his campaign. We are hoping a large number of Retake folks will donate $100, $250, $500 or more to his campaign (link below) and that many can come to the event and meet Augie in person. To RSVP, write to RetakeResponse@gmail.com, tell us how many in your party, and we will send you the address.
If you can’t come, please consider donating generously by clicking here.
Don’t Forget the Midterms
In other election news, it appears that on the national stage Dems are surging due to SCOTUS, a reviving economy, the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, and a drop in inflation. A month ago I looked at Nov. 8 on the calendar with fear and trembling. Now I have more hope, and motivation. At fivethirtyeight.com you can view maps with winners projected based on polling. These maps are updated every 20 minutes, as new polling data is published. For now they project a 67% chance the Dems expand control of the Senate and improve chances of retaining control of the House. From fivethirtyeight.com:
- “Things have improved for Democrats in the House — even though they are still underdogs. Following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, polls for the race for Congress have inched toward Democrats.
- The question now is whether that shift will last or if these polls shift back toward Republicans, as, historically speaking, the party not in the White House does better in the midterms.”
While electing Gabe Vasquez would help protect the House, there are other highly contested races in other states where you can have an impact by signing up with Working America. In our Election Guide & Endorsements I’ve written about this group’s highly effective campaign strategies in swing districts and swing states. So If you want to impact the midterms, this is a place to get in the game. Optimism is way more fun than dread. Let’s Go Blue in 22!
In solidarity & hope,
Paul & Roxanne
Augie Montoya, NM House Dist. 22
Gabe Vasquez, Democratic Candidate in CD2
Categories: State Elections
It’s nice to hear good news. On the other hand, we better fight hard – Republicans will.
This is all good. But we shouldn’t get too carried away by polls that show MLG leading by a few points. Polls aren’t always right, and complacency is the enemy when it comes to elections. Democrats need to work like we’re behind – that’s how Melanie Stansbury’s campaign got a big win in the special election last year. That means we all need to volunteer; do something you haven’t done before, like knock on doors, or phone, or write postcards!!