Shocking Results, Reflections & What Is Next: It’s Over Except for the Trump Meltdown, All Eyes On Georgia Senate Run-Offs

We report on GA & PA’s very different picture this morning, Biden ahead & in position to claim the race, two Senate runoffs & what McConnell can do if the GOP retains control of Senate… terrifying. But we can prevent that in January. Read on!

Georgia Flips to Biden, AZ, NV Remain Blue &
PA, Purple Now and Blue Later Today

Before we recap, I just want to thank the hundreds and hundreds of you who played critical roles in this election. So many close races with narrow wins and narrow losses. But at the end of the day, in NM we have vastly improved the composition of the Senate, replacing seven DINOS with very good, solidly progressive Dems. In the House, we reduced our losses to one, as when all the votes were counted, the initial 7 vote loss by Willie Madrid was reversed with Willie earning a narrow win. Recount coming. If you want to hear more about the national and state election results and processes, as well as what might be coming, check out Retake Conversation with Eric Griego, Working Families Project leader as we broke down the national and state elections. Click here to watch this conversation.

Today we offer a varied post with commentary on the state of the national election, the latest results, and analysis of the importance of the two absolutely critical Senate runoff races on Jan 5, in Georgia. Lastly, in case you missed it, and only if you have a strong stomach, we provide video of Trump’s complete meltdown last night. Lastly, at the bottom of this post, added at 8:30 this morning, are links to some Zoom planning meetings related to possible Protect the Vote actions. Stay tuned.

Where We Stand

Let’s start with the numbers and the electoral map, which stunningly now looks almost exactly like the prediction we made Tuesday morning. The only state we got wrong was North Carolina.

  • Biden leading in Georgia by 1000 votes, with 1% of vote to be counted. Not a big lead, but every release of new votes break for Biden 3-1. It is over in Georgia. This is 16 critical electoral votes and all Biden really needs at this point to win the election. The best Trump can hope for is for him to remarkably reverse the trends in the remaining races below to create a tie 269-269. The next state called for Biden and the race is officially over. What’s more, Georgia was already bracing for a runoff between Kelly Loeffler (R) and Raphael Warnock (D), a tremendous candidate, pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta since 2005, where MLK, Jr. was pastor. But now Jon Ossof (D) and David Perdue (R) are headed to a runoff as well because as the blue wave of absentee ballots came in Perdue’s total dipped below 50%. We are in for a wild 9 weeks leading up to this crucial runoff. The News in Brief below lays out how constrained a Biden presidency would be with McConnell holding an iron grip on the Senate. We have the opportunity to prevent that by winning both these runoff races. One late breaking caveat. There are 4-8,000 absentee ballots to be counted, with 4000 of these in the Atlanta area where ballots break 3-1 for Biden. But there are also 3000 military absentee ballots that may arrive today and it is very difficult to tell how that will break. So, this race will not be decided for quite awhile. Stay tuned.
  • Biden continuing to lead in NV. Biden is leading by 12,000 votes with 84% of the vote counted, but the remaining votes either absentee or from Las Vegas or Northwest NV, with all of these sources breaking 60-40% Biden. All media expect a win here for Biden.
  • Biden continues to lead comfortably in AZ. Biden is leading by 47,000 votes with 90% of the vote counted. Here Trump is actually narrowing the gap very slightly with each release of new votes. He is not expected to catch up, but AZ’s electoral votes are no longer needed for Biden to win. Here, Fox News was the first to call AZ for Biden, sending Trump into a tirade, and leading to his calling Rupert Murdoch, the Fox owner and Trump donor. Fox did not budge. The irony here is that in Trump’s rant last night he had to simultaneously descry continued voting in Georgia and Pennsylvania, while claiming that as all the votes in Arizona are counted, he will win. Very likely not, but it was sadly amusing to see his twisted lack of logic.
  • Biden is closing in on Trump in PA. When I woke up, Biden still trailed by 17,000 votes. But at 7:20 am, he took the lead by 9,000 votes with 2% of the vote to count. Game over. On Tuesday night he trailed by 700,000, but as Philadelphia and mail-in votes began pouring in on Wednesday he had narrowed that to 300,000, by Thursday night he had closed to 75,000. With 2% of the vote still to be counted and with Biden now leading, all experts expect this to flip to Biden with predictions of 40,000-100,000 vote margin. I would love to be a fly on the ceiling in the White House right now. Biden will win PA.
  • Assuming wins in the states above, all of which is universally expected with the possible exception of AZ, the electoral map looks like this. As noted above, this is almost exactly as we predicted on Tuesday. Damned North Carolina 😉

Trump Responds

Put the puppet’s hair on Lear and you’ve got Trump exactly.

It was pathetic. For 17 minutes Trump rambled piling one lie on another. We can only hope that Trump supporters are seeing through the desperate and embarrassing behavior of a president who has completely unravelled. His rambling talk last night was even more base than Nixon’s infamous “I am not a crook” speech. Much, much, much worse. And potentially more damaging, as millions of Americans actually believe his every word. He vaguely encouraged violence, he repeatedly claimed voter fraud and votes coming from nowhere. Worst of all, he desparaged the hundreds of poll workers who risked their lives working in close proximity in enclosed areas to count the votes, sometimes all night long. And their reward? Due to Trump’s tirades, they needed police escorts to their cars when their night was done. Trump has been an embarrassment since day one, but this was truly a new low.

Steve Bannon tweeted that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Christopher Wray, FBI director should be “beheaded” as a message to other bureacrats who “do not follow the program.” Bannon has been banned from Twitter permanently. This is what Trump has begotten, his legacy. Today, there are reports of beefed up security at Joe Biden’s Delaware home. I wonder why.

While it is still early, every single Trump lawsuit has been spurious and rejected. In Nevada, Trump attorneys claiming the vote should be stopped because Republican observers were blocked from watching the vote, had to admit that, in fact, Republican observers were in place. The judge was not amused.

There have been several GOP leaders reacting that would suggest that Trump has gone too far. It may well be that this meltdown will undermine completely the last possible strategy for Trump, getting Republican-controlled state legislatures to not certify the results.

Essential workers, doing their civic duty.

When I was in college I spent a summer at the Ashland Shakespeare festival as an intern. For ten weeks, I watched a matinee and evening performance every day. King Lear was one of the plays in their rotation and so I saw it probably 15 times during the summer. Watching Trump last night was exactly like watching Lear dissolve as he saw his world unravel. It was just like that except for one thing. When the lights went up in Ashland, Lear became an actor with whom I had a beer. When Trump walked from the stage, he continued to tweet dangerously. I honestly feel it is likely that Amendment 25 discussions are happening behind closed doors. Through Amendment 25 a president can be removed from office if it is determined he is no longer capable of performing his duties. Last night was ample evidence of that.

Trump’s rant was so bizarre and false, MSNBC cut away after just five minutes, the first time I can recall the media turning off Donald Trump. Fact-checker Daniel Dale tweeted: “I’ve read or watched all of Trump’s speeches since 2016. This is the most dishonest speech he’s ever given.”  CNN’s Anderson Cooper said it best: “That is the most powerful person in the world, and we see him like an obese turtle on his back, flailing in the hot sun, realizing his time is over. But he just hasn’t accepted it, and he wants to take everybody down with him, including this country.” An obese turtle, flailing. Exactly. Except I would do all I could to right a flailing turtle. But I have less than zero empathy for Trump. Flail away, Donald.

At the bottom of the post, we offer the full video.

News in Briefs: We offer two NIBs this morning, with quotes following the links. One NIB, is from Heather Cox Richardson who nailed the state of the election results perfectly on election night but who also identified the historic context of the electoral college, identifying things I had not known. See quotes as a sampling. The second NIB is a must read, as it lays out what is at stake in Georgia. McConnell has nothing to lose, so if you were appalled by Obama’s last two years of gridlock, the Post suggests it would be much worse in 2021-2023. See a list of bullets below for what we can expect from a McConnell controlled Senate. But also read the full Post piece below. It is time to start getting motivated for some letter writing, calls to any friends you may have in Georgia (are you reading this Jeff Haas?) and sending checks. Grim.

“The problem of voter suppression is compounded by the misuse of the Electoral College. The Framers originally designed delegates to the Electoral College to vote according to districts within states, so that states would split their electoral votes, making them roughly proportional to a candidate’s support. That system changed in 1800, after Thomas Jefferson recognized that he would have a better chance of winning the presidency if the delegates of his own home state, Virginia, voted as a bloc rather than by district. He convinced them to do it. Quickly, other state officials recognized that the “winner-take-all” system meant they must do the same or their own preferred candidate would never win. Thus, our non-proportional system was born, and it so horrified James Madison and Alexander Hamilton that both wanted constitutional amendments to switch the system back.”

And

Democracy took another hit from that system in 1929. The 1920 census showed that the weight of the nation’s demographics was moving to cities, which were controlled by Democrats, so the Republicans in control of the House of Representatives refused to reapportion representation after that census. Reapportioning the House would have cost many of them their seats. Rather than permitting the number of representatives to grow along with population, Congress then capped the size of the House at 435. Since then, the average size of a congressional district has tripled. This gives smaller states a huge advantage in the Electoral College, in which each state gets a number of votes equal to the number of its senators and representatives.

Heather Cox Richardson

The Washington Post offered a short piece outlining just how bad a GOP controlled Senate would be. At the time of the writing, it looked very much like what we faced. Now we may have a reprieve. Consider these observations from the Post:

  • Absolutely zero chance of any meaningful Covid relief for those out of work or for states and cities out of money, none.
  • Absolutely zero chance of any kind of judicial reform, court expansion or anything. We would be hostage to the court system created by McConnell and Trump;
  • No Green New Deal;
  • No criminal justice reform;
  • No relief for students with overwhelming student debt; and
  • Remarkably, the Senate could actually refuse to approve any and all cabinet positions, no Secretary of the Treasury or Secretary of State approved unless they are Republican.

But we can prevent this and by now you are experts on what needs to be done. Are you ready to get involved in these runoffs? Stay tuned. As soon as info is available, likely this weekend, we will let you know. We absolutely MUST win both those races and with Stacy Abrams leading the charge, we can do it.

In solidarity and hope,

Paul

Trump Lear: Act V

Action Update from Karen Bentrup: Added at 8:30 am

1 – there are 2 good webinars at 1:00pm (see below)
2 – at 4:00pm Count Every Vote has a short check-in planning zoomJoin Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/85363546881?pwd=b2NaR3ZvNUdqbFRHRWNtbGlsVk1mUT09 Meeting ID: 853 6354 6881    Passcode: 511636
One tap mobile  +13462487799,,85363546881#,,,,,,0#,,511636# US (Houston)Dial by your location:  253 215 8782 US (Tacoma)    346 248 7799 US (Houston)

3 – then the Mass zoom at 5:30pm, register through https://protecttheresults.com/

Video replay – Frontline’s “Make It Count: Post Election Updates and Action Steps” with special guests Stacey Abrams and Rep. Rashida Tlaib. Hosts from Working Families Party, The Frontline, Movement for Black Lives Electoral Justice Project, and United We Dream Action on Facebook 11/4.Watch here:   https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=697633561160422&ref=watch_permalink



Categories: Election, Political Reform & National Politics

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5 replies

  1. Decision Desk–usually accurate and usually among the first to call–has called PA and the general election for Biden 8:50 ET.

    I’m a registered Dem, but didn’t vote for Biden. The vote has been divisive. Now I hope the progressive community can unite behind an effort to force Biden to the left.

  2. HI Paul and Roxanne. The only shocking thing still in operation is the shock doctrine of the Extreme Center. Crazy is now sane, outrage is praise, loggerhead is just the name of a turtle.

    The Horse Latitudes is an area of the equatorial oceans where there is little wind and few currents. Nothing much moves here. Stagnation is the order of most days.

    This malignant empire is now in perpetual stagnation. The electoral map shown is what might wrest the cancerous nation from its certain death. With Georgia being an anomaly, we have four potential new countries. The SW/West Coast, the Northeast/Upper Midwest, the bible belt, and Florida. If we could juice Florida and Georgia together, we might have a slightly less insane SE corner country.

    Let us not fool ourselves with ‘hope’ of some miracle. ‘murka is the third largest population in the world. The promise of a monolithic ‘free’ state was just propaganda.

    It is easily demonstrable that the bible belt is the only monolithic addiction that has succeeded. Florida/Georgia – is just nuts. The West/East ‘corners’ are fairly diverse, in many senses, and certainly not monolithic.

    Two new countries with parliaments, one with a religious oligarchy, and one with Disney World as the capitol.

    My absurd solution to this glaring absurdity.

    Mick Nickel

  3. I have to agree with the above poster. America is “toast” and this election proves it. There is no “renewal”. There is no “bringing the country together”. It is WAY too late…WAY too late. We are a pitiful collection of emotionally immature adults who continually act like they have not grown beyond the age of 12 or 13–boys slightly younger. The only Act left in King Lear–death.

  4. Meanwhile, https://prospect.org/day-one-agenda/277-policies-biden-need-not-ask-permission/

    Sort of the national level of thinking compared to what Paul’s Transformations Working Group has been researching for NM.

  5. I don’t see anything, in the agenda, about reinstating full status to transgender soldiers in the military. Very disappointed. That was a huge loss instituted by Trump.

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