A Message of Hope, Election Predictions & A Plan for Readiness if a Coup Is Tried

Today, we offer a message of hope and some predictions for Tuesday, a very quick read…. We are gonna get this done, but there are some close races her in NM that could use your time. Plus a NM plan for resisting a possible coup effort. Read on!!!!

First reasons for hope, followed by info on NM’s implementation of a nationwide coup preparedness strategy. What is especially intriguing about the readiness strategy is the incorporation of plans to use the energy and organization that has evolved to resist a coup to continue organizing to advance priorities.

A Message of Hope;
Projections From Paul

I know this is supposed to be a message of hope, but yesterday a Biden campaign caravan heading to an Austin, TX rally was surrounded by armed Trumpsters in trucks who forced the Biden vehicles off the road and to cancel their event. This makes Watergate look like a minor mis-step. What is going on to suppress the vote, to undermine science and the truth, and to mislead voters is far beyond any semblance of a fair election and a dignified dialog. We must remember this on Nov. 4. I am very confident Biden will win, even after all the subversive tactics, but what comes after in terms of unbridled violence and hatred, that is another matter? And so,after our message of hope, we offer a very good NM resource for having that discussion and being ready.

Now the Hope Part

After months of anxiety about the looming election, I have settled on feeling that too many Democrats are livid; too many young voters are motivated and two many Republicans have a conscience and some semblance of sanity and all of these voters are fearful of what would happen with another four years. As a result, I see a big win on many fronts for America.

First from the Polls: There were over a dozen polls published Saturday. This morning, new polls didn’t reveal any shocking shifts. We didn’t cherry-pick to make you feel good. This is representative of all those polls with our selecting the highest rated polls.

  • Wisconsin, Biden + 7
  • Minnesota, Biden + 11
  • North Carolina, Biden + 4
  • Michigan , Biden + 11
  • Arizona, Biden + 4
  • Texas, Biden or Trump + 2, depending on poll. I actually think we win Texas)
  • Georgia, Biden + 2
  • Pennsylvania, Biden + 5
  • Florida- Even

If we win all of those states in which polls show Biden leading, it is a landslide.

From New Mexico: A new Senate, If you keep calling…. Retake predicting wins by:

  • Neomi Martinez Parra
  • Carrie Hamblin
  • Pam Cordova
  • Siah Correa Hemphill
  • Leo Jaramillo
  • Harold Pope
  • Claudia Risner
  • Brenda McKenna

That will be eight new Democratic Senators with a net gain of two Democrats (28-14) and if you count DINOs as the Republicans that they are a net gain of 8. Let the 2021 legislative session begin.

And In Another Senate:

  • One win in GA and one runoff;
  • One win in Iowa… very tight
  • One win in Maine
  • One win in Colorado
  • One win in Arizona
  • One loss in Alabama

Net: 51-49 Dems.

And in the big enchillada: worst case scenario

Best case scenario… and I actually think this is possible.

My prediction: The thing to watch….Early results will come from FL and AZ. If we take those two states, there is no path for Trump. We may know that reasonably early Tuesday night.

And Now a Message from Political Mover/Shaker Brian Colker

1) There have been no polling moves of any significance in the last few days. Ignore any articles that claim it. Biden is in the strongest position from a polling standpoint of any candidate since Clinton in 1996. He’s very likely to win on election night.

(2) Democrats are heavily favored to win the Senate. Nothing has changed there. We are keeping the House – that’s a lock.

(3) The Democrats are fully ready to take on any legal challenges that are thrown at that. Our leaders have gamed out every single scenario and spent hundreds of millions of dollars preparing massive legal teams in every state. No joke – the republicans will NOT be able to steal this election in the Courts.

(4) With 100 million votes already cast, and a massive amount of them on paper, and dozens of different voting systems, and an FBI (at the state level) expecting a cyber attack, it would be very difficult for the Russians to disrupt the election in this manner.

(5) Yes, there will be a lot of angry, armed people when the thing loses. This is America – there are always armed, angry people. What are they going to do, exactly? How would one prepare for an onslaught of older white men being angry? There will be a lot more jubilant people celebrating. Can’t worry about this one. So… keep phone and text banking and do whatever you need to do to grind through the next four days. We’re almost there.

Two Quotes from Last Night’s Heather Cox Richardson

“Lots of us are exhausted and discouraged, and after the chaos of the past four years, it seems entirely fair to be exhausted. As civil rights icon Fannie Lou Hamer said, we’re “sick and tired of being sick and tired.”

Heather Cox Richardson

“Our nation faces headwinds, for sure. We simply must get the coronavirus pandemic under control, and then address the extremes of wealth and poverty in this country. Fixing healthcare, systemic racism and sexism, climate change, and education all must be on the table as we move firmly into the twenty-first century. It sounds like a daunting list, but after years of apathy while a few wealthy Americans tightened their grip on the nation, Americans have woken up to the fact that democracy is not a spectator sport.

We are taking back our country, and once we have done so, we will find that no problem is insurmountable.”

Heather Cox Richardson

From us:

Call for Neomi, Claudia or Pam, Then Take a Walk & Enjoy Your Sunday Afternoon…. and thank you to all of you, for all you have done. Almost there.

But We Need to Be Ready,
Just in Case

Karen Bentrup deserves an award or something for all she has done to organize our state to ready itself should a coup effort unfold. What’s more, she is using the organizing process to prepare for future advocacy to advance our priorities if a coup effort does not unfold. Here is her note sent last night to a growing network

Hi friends – welcome to our next zoom room on SUNDAY, Nov 1st. 1:00-3:00pmMT. Zoom link and more info below. Plz glance thru all the way to the end – such good news!  Thanks for joining in our collective community care and work.
LINK – https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83758538768?pwd=Yk1IdWVWS3RkcURpMjBBKzNSZmVtdz09 

Meeting ID: 837 5853 8768        Passcode: 230049

One tap mobile: +13462487799,,83758538768#,,,,,,0#,,230049# US (Houston)Dial by your location            +1 346 248 7799 US (Houston)          +1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)

#JoyToThePolls – Daily Affirmation: for our good hearts!
We claim this day and every day in the name of our joy and our thriving! No matter our mood, no matter the struggle, we know there is a joy within that will never let us go. We live it in our protests, we live it in our actions, and we live it in our care for community. Let us take that joy to the polls!”  – Rev. Sofia Betancourt   https://www.uua.org/offices/people/sofia-betancourt


  • Welcome & onboarding to our work – Karen Bentrup
  • Centering and grounding – Kathleen O’Malley
  • Land acknowledgment – Deborah Marez-Baca
  • Nonviolence statement – for CountEveryVoteNM – Janice Hart (& writing team)
  • “Community Commitment Campaign” – cheers for our Pillar teams & Media outreach!
  • Breakouts & Large Group work: What now? 
    • Q1: If there is NO coup, what could be the role for this group in pushing a “people’s movement” agenda? – Zach Smith
    • Q2: If there is a coup, what actions do we take here in NM? – Dimid Hayes
  • Quick update re: Nov 4th events

EVENTS on NOV 4th:

NonViolent ACTION LAB w/ Pace e Bene – Thursdays: Nov 5, 12, 19; 5:30-7:00pmMT Need someone to brainstorm action ideas with? Want some feedback on something you’re planning? Pace e Bene’s Ken Butigan and Rivera Sun are here for you! Join us on Thursdays during the election season to troubleshoot your ideas for taking nonviolent action in defense of the elections. Finetune your message. Maximize your impact. Explore support roles and ally groups. Learn how to maintain nonviolent discipline. We’ll also review what didn’t work and make plans to shift gears if needed. Pre-reg at this site to receive zoom links:
AFSC – Bystander Training Videos & Resources

RESOURCES – safety & prep

RESOURCES – various

and the best news … 

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In hope and solidarity

Paul & Roxanne

Categories: Election, Political Reform & National Politics

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4 replies

  1. Thank you Paul and Roxanne for your dedication in all the work you have done to ensure a Biden/Harris victory. I think they will win but it will be a fight. Is there any chance we can put Barr in prison?

  2. Our goal should be to put both Barr and the Trump mafia in a federal pen — if they don’t decamp to Moscow, or elsewhere without an extradition agreement with the USA.

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