Very brief post today focused on recent shifts in the NM State legislative races and we offer an update on the most recent national election polling. We have one week: TIME FOR A HIGHER GEAR. LET’s DO THIS!!!!
We offer three shifts in election priorities. Yesterday, we noted that Harold Pope appears to be safe, but that Neomi Martinez Parra remains the primary target of the GOP and Dark Money. She remains our # 1 priority.
But yesterday, we got word that the gap is closing in another of our priority races, where Pam Cordova is seeking a Senate seat in SD # 30 and so we encouraged that you devote time and resources to her campaign, as well.
We have also heard that in Senate District 19, Claudia Risner is on the rise and has a good shot at defeating Gregg Schmedes and that would be a HUGELY important victory. Lastly, we were told that in HD 38, Karent Whitlock has cut her deficit in half and is within a margin of error from unseating Rebecca Dow. See below for info on each of these races, followed by an update on national polling. Read on!
Protect a Woman’s Right to Choose: Support Claudia Risner
Oct. 27 Update: Senate Dist. 19 (Tijeras, East Mountains) is suddenly in play which in and of itself is huge news, as it is a very moderate, perhaps even conservative district. A 43.20 DPI is by far the lowest DPI of any candidate we have supported. We just don’t want to waste your resources on extreme longshots. But we have been tracking Risner’s campaign for some time. Long ago, we were told that Risner has been very committed to her effort and are now being told she is essentially tied and with a very good shot at winning. She is challengining Gregg Schmedes, who gave up his House seat to run for a Senate seat in SD 19, the seat of retired GOP Jame White. Schmedes is about as conservative as anyone in the legislature, a fundamentalist Christian, ardently opposed to women’s reproductive rights who votes with the GOP every time and is opposed to masks.
In addition to being a retired Navy Captain, Claudia Risner earned her PhD degree from Old Dominion University in 2018. The research for her Doctorate in International Studies focused on how four global port cities are adapting to climate change as they deal with sea level rise, chronic flooding and frequent, severe storm damage. The study highlights the adverse impact of politicizing policy making around the climate crisis. With this background knowledge and her passion, Claudia will be an environmental champion making good decisions that will protect our land, jobs, tax dollars and future.
If you have the time and/or financial resources, this would be an excellent investment of both.
UPDATE FROM HD 38, KAREN WHITLOCK VS REBECCA DOW
This race was once viewed as a longshot but I have been hearing that it is getting very tight and that we have a real shot at unseating another of the more conservative legislators in the Roundhouse, Rebecca Dow. The Whitlock campaign has four distinct phone banks set up, from easy ballot chase calls to the more difficult persuasion calls. Can you give them an hour? Or an hour a day? Help them to win ‘the most likely to flip’ state house seat! Please call or email campaign at 505-920-0540, email@example.com to get involved. Thank you!
UPDATE FROM SD 30, PAM CORDOVA CAMPAIGN
Pam launched her volunteer driven campaign on August 12. We did not push Retake folks to this campaign as info we received was that Pam would do just fine and with campaign manager extraordinaire Neri Holguin running her campaign, we thought it best to put resources into other races. But we’ve been told this race has tightened and so now we encourage you to reach her campaign by calling either of her campaign coordinators below or by emailing her excellent campaign manager, Neri Holguin. firstname.lastname@example.org. We badly need Pam’s voice in the Senate.
- Abel Romero: 505/859-8412
- Dylan Ritter: 402/213-3804
For more information on the campaigns of Pam Cordova and Karen Whitlock, click to get to our State Legislative Election Strategy.
GENERAL ELECTION UPDATE
With but a week to go, polls haven’t shifted much in the past week, except perhaps a slight tightening of the national polls. We will update you throughout the week. The same states remain critical to Biden’s winning in the electoral college: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and polling published yesterday, show Biden comfortably ahead in all three.
As the map below this table illustrates, barring very surprising results elsewhere, wins in these three states yield a narrow Biden win even if he loses all 85 of the tan swing states. And in all the tan swing states states and even in pink Texas Biden is leading or within the margin of error. For example, in polling released last night, Biden enjoyed small leads in Texas, Florida, Iowa, a larger 4% lead in North Carolina and was even in Georgia. All polls show Biden trailing by 1-2% in Ohio.
In the Senate races, Democrats continue to hold comfortable leads in key races in Michigan (where they must hold a Dem. seat), and in take-away states, Dem challengers lead comfortably in Maine and Colorado, slightly less comfortably in Arizona and North Carolina (+2% – +6%) and small leads in Iowa and Georgia.
Bottom line: while things look promising, Trump is pulling out all the stops and with a week to go, who knows what could happen to influence voters. So, please keep calling and texting and contributing.
In solidarity & hope,
Paul & Roxanne
Categories: Local-State Government & Legislation