We offer links to our election strategies, to last week’s posts, to our down ballot recommendations, & our recommendation on Amendment 1.Since it is Indigenous People’s Day, we also offer an interview with Roxanne Dunbar Ortiz on settler colonialism and on pre-colonial indigenous socialism. She outlines not just how indigenous peoples have been oppressed by settler colonialism, but how all of us have been harmed by it. A very worthwhile way to spend 25 minutes on Indigenous Peoples’ Day.
On Sunday, Vox published “New national polls are disastrous for Trump — and state polls aren’t much better” in which it reported an update on polling nationally with the upshot being that now 538.0rg now states that Biden has an 86% chance of winning the election (compared to 71% for HRC in 2016 on election day). What’s more, that gap is widening by the day. Trump must win one of the following states to have a path to 270 electoral votes:
- In Michigan, Biden is averaging an 8 percentage point lead over Trump
- Biden enjoys an average lead of 7.3 percentage points in Pennsylvania
- Biden is also leading Trump by 7.2 percentage points on average in Wisconsin
Biden is also now leading narrowly in Ohio, Iowa and Florida and in national polls has expanded his lead to anywhere from 10-14% depending on the poll.
But this is not even remotely over. Even with these poll leads, other research shows that at this point 70% of the mail-in and early voting ballots are coming from Democrats and in HUGE numbers. Why is this important? There is a very real possibility that when we go to bed on Nov. 3, Trump will hold leads in many or even all of those states. And then Trump’s anti-democracy efforts and even a possible coup could begin, as we reported in “Trump-GOP Threaten to Steal Election: 38-Page Atlantic Piece Condensed… A Must Read, Must Share” Because of a significant likelihood of an undecided election on the morning of Nov 4, many are now using the term “Election month” in anticipation that ballots will be counted for many days, even weeks, before a final, decisive winner can be called.
There are also no ends of tricks that Trump could unveil between now and November 3. He has been pressing AG William Barr to arrest Obama and Clinton and has questioned how it is even legal for Biden to run for President. And we still have 22 days to go. Interestingly, Barr has been quoted as saying that there is no case against the Democrats for Trump’s “biggest political crime in American history, by far.” He indicated that the investigation conducted by Comey and later by Mueller were both launched correctly and were not politically motivated. If Trump can’t convince even William Barr to advance his lunatic claims of conspiracy, he is flying naked.
From the Sunday news talk shows, it is clear that the GOP plans to distract voters from the mishandling of the economy and COVID to whether or not the Dems will “pack the court” if they take the White House and Senate. This is an interesting charge since GOP presidents have selected 15 of the last 19 Supreme Court justices and have spent four years packing the federal courts with strongly conservative young judges.
While it is good to have goodpolling news, none of this suggests it is time to take our foot from the throttle. Not by a long shot. Indeed, with just 22 days to go, it is time for each of you to redouble whatever commitments you’ve made to the election.
On a national level: Employ our GOTV strategy focusing on people you know in NM and key swing states. In 10-15 minutes you can reach out to a couple dozen folks and encourage them to forward the email to a dozen more. However you plan to vote, you need to understand the rules in your state and county and this GOTV strategy helps anyone do so. Our national election strategy identifies the key swing states and the states with critical Senate races, so you can target your donations and time.
Finally, we have races here in NM. I did some reconnaissance and I am told that we need to keep our focus on the Senate with Neomi Martinez Parra facing the greatest challenge and so needing the most in donations and other support. I will update what I am hearing in our next post, but for certain Parra is our major focus. But Harold Pope, Brenda McKenna and Pam Cordova all need a push to get across the finish line. Wins in those four Senate races coupled with highly likely wins by Siah Correa Hemphill and Carrie Hamblin, will substantially reshape the NM State Senate.
We are also supporting three fine House candidates among our top priority races. Click here to identify NM State races worthy of your support. Remember, our priorities are not simply who we like most. There are tons of incumbents in the House and Senate who we support strongly, but our info is that they are safe and that they need colleagues who think (and will vote) like them.
Please, whatever you do, this is not the time to ease off the gas. We are so close to achieving our goals.
A Look Back at a Wild Week.
We always like to offer advice as to which of last week’s posts warrant revisiting. Today it is easy: The Wednesday post with our recommendation on NM State Constitutional Amendment 1 and the Friday post on engaging your friends and encouraging them to sign up for Retake. We need to build our base in readiness to push for tramsformational bills in 2021. To be successful, we need many more of you….many more. Read on!
It’s Monday: Links to Last Week’s Posts,
Ruminations on Trump & the Election & Reasons To Hope
Monday, October 5. We presented an election map with very promising polling data, also some comments on the state of the election, Trump & his pre-post Covid actions and a couple of corrections to our down ballot election recommendations. Read on.
Vote NO On Amendment 1: The PRC Needs a Fix, but This is NOT It. No Governor Should Appoint Commissioners
Wednesday, October 7. We offer our opinion on NM Constitutional Amendment 1, which would eliminate the election of PRC Commissioners by voters and, instead, have them appointed the Governor. We examine a 2017 National Regulatory Research Institute study of the NM PRC. They compared PRC operations with national best practices and made a half dozen recommendations, none of them to appoint commissioners. None of the recommendations have been implemented. We think they should. This post lays out clearly why you should VOTE NO and why you should share this post with everyone you know. Those supporting this amendment have ulterior motives; there are hundreds of thousands of dollars of dark money supporting this amendment. I wonder why?
First, Huge Polling News and then a Study In Contrasts…
Thursday, October 8. A short post offering a contrast between Biden’s caring manner and the egomaniacal behavior of a president who can only think of himself. We offer a view of both candidates & national polling that suggests, Nov 3-5 could be Landslide Day. Note that we are now stressing that this election will very likely not be decided on Nov 3.
We Wonder What Might Happen If….
Friday, October 9. We shared some ideas for how you can significantly expand the impact of Retake Our Democracy’s efforts. And you responded. This week we’ve had far and away the largest number of people visit our site in the last two years.
As we near the 2021 legislative session, we will be asking you to begin to think of yourselves as community organizers. We are going to offer you some inspiring incentives, too, as we are working on a set of 10-12 Bills for Transformation, bills that four years ago we could not have dreamed to have moved in either NM State chamber. But with all your work these last four years, the House and Senate are being transformed and these bills now have a chance of becoming law. We will begin sharing information about those bills even before the Nov 3 election. So stay tuned. In the meantime, we think the strategies in this post can help us engage new people and get them organized. So, please revisit this post and help us with one or two of our base-building strategies. 2021 is the year to transform NM.
Indigenous Peoples Day
We honor our Indigenous communities in NM with this thoughtful interview Roxanne Dunbar-Ortiz by Laura Flanders. Dunbar-Ortiz is one of the foremost indigenous historians in America, author of An Indigenous Peoples’ History of the U.S. In this interview, she outlines not just how much indigenous peoples have lost from settler colonial policies that persist today, but how all of us lose. This is a very worthwhile way to spend the next 25 minutes.
In solidarity and hope,
Roxanne and Paul
Categories: Indigenous Rights