Yikes. Evidence Trump Would Win in 2020

Washington Post poll shows if voter were held today Trump would win the popular vote too, and CounterPunch article describes how he could easily win re-election, despite being so unpopular. Retake offers a strategy for doing our part to ensure this doesn’t happen.

Another Term?  Please No

Much of the CounterPunch article indicating that Trump could win, points to historic precedent that shows it is extremely rare for a party to win the White House and then only remain in power 4 years. Indeed the only time this has happened since 1932 has been Jimmy Carter. But the article also describes what cognitive scientists call the ‘default effect’ and how this is part of the explanation for why candidates win even when candidates are unpopular. To illustrate this, in 2016 only 15% of Americans thought Congress was doing a good job, yet 97% of House candidates won re-election and 96% of Senators. Click here to read the CounterPunch article.

The prospect of another Trump term is almost too much to bear. But, there is also evidence from a Washington Post poll, just released, that if the election were held today, fully 15% of those people who voted for Clinton would now vote for someone else and only 4% of Trump voters would not vote for him Doing the math, the Post calculates that if the election were held today, not only would Trump win the electoral vote, but the popular vote, as well. Frankly, this finding shocked both of us. But is it possible that progressive America is just a bit out of touch with the rest of the US?  If so, communicating consistently with those with whom we have relationships is very important. Click here to read about the Post poll.

Retake Strategy to Win House and Prevent a Trump Re-Election

We have no illusions. While Retake could have an important impact on local and even state politics, a national impact is beyond a stretch. But to maximize our impact locally and at a state level, it is important that we expand the number of folks who routinely see our posts. To have a national impact will require people consistently sharing materials with friends in other parts of the country.

Roxanne and I hear it all the time: “What you are doing is so important,” “Your posts are the best op-eds out there,” and “You really nailed this issue.”  Yet since reaching about 1800 subscribers, we have plateaued, and in truth, the number reading each post is not going up either. So, we are going to revive one strategy from the Bernie campaign and initiate a new effort.

Ongoing Weekend Outreach at Farmer’s Market and Other Key Locations. If you are willing to be part of the Flyer Brigade, we will create a group email and send out weekly requests for slots to canvass at the Farmers Market (every Saturday 10-1pm) and other community events and opportunities (including events in South Side and other parts of the city where we are under-represented). During the Bernie campaign, we would routinely get scores of sign-ups every weekend using this strategy. Just write to me at paul@retakeourdemocracy.org and we’ll put you on the list to be contacted. This is actually a fun way to engage people in conversation, to build our base and to become more skilled in talking with others–friends, family, neighbors—about Retake..

Sharing Sundays.  While many posts are germane primarily to Santa Fe or New Mexico, there are some posts that are eminently ‘shareable’ more broadly. And so, starting today, I am launching Sharing Sundays.  Each Sunday, I’ll include a brief commentary, like the one above and then provide links to a handful of the posts that have received the most kudos or comments and a few that clearly have a national import. I am asking as many of you as possible to take a few minutes each Sunday to identify 1-2 links you especially appreciated and send them to friends and family, with a note of some sort saying that you think the posts are important, and that the website has a ton of good resources. The website will have a far more searchable look very soon. It has taken far longer than anticipated, but that is because our key volunteer on this actually has a job….in India, as a school principal and she has been in India for two months making communication more challenging. She is back very soon and we expect to make this a top priority.

As these two outreach efforts unfold, I will be able to watch and see how many new subscribers we get on Sundays and Mondays and hopefully will see us inching our way up. If we start to get more people from other parts of the state or country, we will do more posts of broader interest. But it is vitally important that we engage, educate and activate people. The other comment I hear all too often is: “The news is too depressing to follow.”  The image at left is one of my favorites, as it is so very true. A small group of folks can create a larger group of folks and then if those folks get engaged and do more outreach, we can have an even broader impact. Besides, what else can we do?  Sit back and watch our country and our planet disintegrate?

 

Sharing Sundays

To make these posts shorter the opening passages referring to a host of local events has been removed and to make the content more accessible to moderate or even conservative readers, some titles have been made less inflammatory. Otherwise the content to the posts below remain the same.

What Makes Retake Our Democracy Different from Indivisible & Other Groups. A description of what is unique about Retake Our Democracy and a good introduction to friends who may not have heard of our work.  Click here.

TrumpCare What It Is & How it Passed. An analysis of the process used to push TrumpCare through the House and its potential impact. Click here.

Trump Tax Plan: Worse than You Imagine. An analysis of who benefits from Trump’s tax plan and who doesn’t. Most of us don’t.  Click here.

The Hidden Costs of Capitalism. Shocking summary of the cost of housing in America and how our privilege here comes at the incredible cost of those in under-developed countries (a two minute video). Click here.

MLK, Jr and: Climate Justice: The Urgency of Now. Taking MLK, Jr.’s speech on Viet Nam and applying excerpts to climate justice, to underscore the urgency of now. The second most commented on and shared post we’ve done. Click here.

Economic Injustice at Home and Abroad: The Struggle to Be Housed. An important post as it shows how utterly unaffordable life is in the US for an always increasing proportion of us, with many just a pay check away from desperation. And then to put this in context, a powerful short video depicting how our comparative luxury comes at an unthinkable cost to undeveloped countries.  Click here.

The Owl and the Hawk. My personal reaction on the morning after Trump’s election when visited by both a hawk and an owl. The most commented upon and shared post we’ve done.  Click here.

3 thoughts on “Yikes. Evidence Trump Would Win in 2020

  1. blockquote, div.yahoo_quoted { margin-left: 0 !important; border-left:1px #715FFA solid !important; padding-left:1ex !important; background-color:white !important; } Paul, Please add me to the Flyer Brigade. Diana

    Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPhone

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  2. For those locked into “identity politics” and the “liberalism” and so called now “progressives” on many levels have seemed to have been having a difficult time reading and listening to lines of Bernie Sanders, Elezibeth Warren and many others.

    If the so called “left” in the US is to achieve real positive results it needs to refocus itself to socio-economic, combined with environmental issues and build a strong local, regional and nationally powerful base and foundation – urban and rural and across the social class and racial and gender divides with an approach and savoy that appeals and does not repel, but at the same time is strong, courageous and unwavering for justice, fairness basic decency and greater socio – economic equity – there are many mentors from our past and our present and some doing this. Perhaps we can look at some mentors of the past – like say someone like Will Rogers – he was a rags to riches character from Oklahoma dirt prairie lands with a homespun humor and pathos unmatched with his desire and his coaxing for fairness and decency….. he is but one that come to mind.

    Over emphasis on identity and single issue politics is and has been generally a loser and is clique like and exclusionary and even at times a bit snotty – so be it – I say this because I have been slapped around and often marginalized by these folks myself with significant – actually irreparable damage to my employment and career – there can be a real meanness and haughtiness here, So it is time, I think, to rethink and reorient and find a spiritual connectedness to a holistic movement that appreciates the gifts of all individuals and their potential – children, adults and elders across the “great divides” – and in NM we can do this with our diversity – environmental, gro- geographical and human – and heck the continental divide goes right through our state.

    Just some thoughts, as I visit my son in Vermont actually.

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